Total end-user spending on IT infrastructure products (server, enterprise storage, and Ethernet switch) for cloud environments, including public and private cloud, recovered in the fourth quarter of 2019 (4Q19) after two consecutive quarters of decline, growing 12.4% year over year in Q4 2019 to $19.4 billion, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Cloud IT Infrastructure Tracker.
"While the beginning of 2020 was marked by supply chain issues that should be resolved before the end of the second quarter, the negative economic impact will hit enterprise customers' CAPEX spending," said Kuba Stolarski, research director, Infrastructure Systems, Platforms and Technologies at IDC. "As enterprise IT budgets tighten through the year, public cloud will see an increase in demand for services. This increase will come in part from the surge of work-from-home employees using online collaboration tools, but also from workload migration to public cloud as enterprises seek ways to save money for the current year. Once the coast is clear of coronavirus, IDC expects some of this new cloud service demand to remain sticky going forward."
IDC's new five-year forecast predicts cloud IT infrastructure spending* will reach $100.1 billion in 2024 with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.4%. Non-cloud IT infrastructure spending will decline slightly to $65.3 billion with a -0.7% CAGR. Total IT infrastructure is forecast to grow at a 4.2% CAGR and produce $165.4 billion in spending in 2024.
Some highlights from IDC
The overall IT infrastructure market continued to struggle after its strong performance in 2018, up 3.3% to $38.1 billion in 4Q19 but declining 1.1% to $134.4 billion for the full year. Non-cloud IT infrastructure fell 4.6% to $18.7 billion for the quarter and declined 4.1% to $67.7 billion for the year.
Spending on cloud IT infrastructure in 4Q19 was driven by the public cloud segment, which grew 14.5% year over year to $13.3 billion; private cloud grew 8.2% to $6.1 billion.
IDC expects cloud IT infrastructure will stay above 50% of the IT Infrastructure market at both the quarterly and annual levels, reaching 60.5% annually in 2024.
Across the three IT infrastructure technology domains, storage platforms saw the fastest year-over-year growth in 4Q19 at 15.1% with spending reaching $6.6 billion. Compute platforms grew 14.5% year over year with $10.8 billion in spending while Ethernet switches declined 3.9% to $2.0 billion.
For the full year 2019, Ethernet switches led with year-over-year growth of 5.0% and $8.2 billion in spending, followed by storage platforms with 1.9% growth and spending of $23.1 billion, and compute platforms with growth of 1.5% and spending of $35.5 billion.
IDC's forecast for 2020, after taking into consideration the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic and its ensuing economic crisis, is for $69.2 billion in cloud IT infrastructure spending*, a 3.6% predicted annual increase over 2019. Non-cloud IT infrastructure spending is expected to decline 9.2% to $61.4 billion in 2020. Together, overall IT infrastructure spending is expected to decline 2.9% to $130.6 billion.
