International Data Corporation (IDC) has published a report that analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global semiconductor market and presents several possible outcomes.
"The emergence of COVID-19 has brought with it travel bans and quarantines; massive slowing of the supply chain; uncertainty in the stock market; falling business confidence, and growing panic among the population," said Mario Morales, program vice president, Semiconductors and Enabling Technologies at IDC. "Despite the growing uncertainty and panic, technology suppliers must continue to focus on their long-term investments, maintain engagement with partners and prospects, and look to specific markets for stability. Emerging technologies like 5G, the Internet of Things, high-performance computing, and intelligent edge will be fundamental to an overall recovery by the technology sector."
The report provides a framework to evaluate the market impact through four scenarios that assess the range of possible outcomes. Each scenario is based on varying assumptions and severity of the impact to business for technology suppliers. For each scenario, a range of critical factors are assessed with a resulting updated forecast, presented with leading indicators to help clients navigate this emergency.
Some highlights:
- There is nearly an 80% chance for significant contraction in worldwide semiconductor revenues in 2020, instead of a previously expected minor overall growth of 2%.
- There is still a one-in-five chance that a fast, strong bounce back from COVID-19 in 2020 is possible.
- On a global level, the COVID-19 crisis is just beginning, with too many variables to immediately craft a single forecast in response.
- The impact to technology supply chains in China are significant, but the timing of the recovery is uncertain.
