ABI forecasts $1.7bn market over 5 yrs for unlicensed/shared spectrum

According to ABI Research's latest Network Evolution in Unlicensed and Shared Spectrum report, which explores the use of unlicensed and shared spectrum, technologies enabling the utilisation of this spectrum type are not only attracting interest from established mobile network operators for low cost network densification, but also from new entrants to the market.

ABI finds that this interest is due to the opportunities that the network technologies offer for densification, neutral hosts, as well as enterprise and private network operators. The research firm predicts that new LTE unlicensed and shared spectrum technologies will create a $1.7 billion hardware market over the next 5 years encompassing LTE Unlicensed, CBRS (citizens broadband radio service) and MulteFire technology.

ABI notes that as a result of the power restrictions inherent with unlicensed and shared spectrum, the technologies are most suitable for small cell indoor or venue deployments. Based on low or no spectrum acquisition costs, plus deployment economics comparable to WiFi, ABI forecasts that demand for in-building wireless penetration in the mid-sized and enterprise verticals will increase dramatically and account for more than half of in-building small cell shipments in 2021.

The research firm reports that numerous companies are developing in technology in this area, ranging from the Spectrum Access System (SAS) providers and Environmental Sensing Capability (ESC) operators for CBRS, including Alphabet, CommScope, Federated Wireless, to small cell and infrastructure vendors such as BaiCells, Casa Systems, Ericsson, Huawei, ip.access, Nokia, Ruckus and SpiderCloud.

With regards to CBRS, which uses the 3.5 GHz band, ABI notes that an indication that the technology will transform the in-building wireless and mobile industries is that the CBRS Alliance, which advocates for CBRS technology, counts as members all four major U.S. mobile operators, namely AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint, as well as major MSOs, Comcast and Charter Communications, plus Google, Intel, Nokia and Qualcomm.

Commenting on the report, Nick Marshall, research director at ABI Research, said, "LTE-U/LAA appeals to MNOs planning to densify but with insufficient spectrum or the capex to acquire it… while MulteFire and CBRS promise low network build-out costs with economics that threaten to disrupt the DAS market... the technologies appeal to service providers as CBRS pioneers a significant change in spectrum management…. (and) traditional spectrum refarming cannot match the mobile broadband throughput demands with the migration to 5G".

https://www.abiresearch.com/press/new-lte-unlicensed-and-shared-spectrum-technologie/

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ABI forecasts NFV market to reach $38bn by 2022

According to ABI Research's latest Network Functions Virtualization Tracker and Forecasts report, after a slower start than initially anticipated, the network function virtualisation (NFV) market is set to experience moderate growth based on continuing NFV investments by major telcos.

ABI Research forecasts that North America will be the largest market, accumulating $13 billion in NFV-related investments during 2022, while Europe will see the highest growth rate with an estimated 53% CAGR between 2017 and 2022. The research firm notes that early adopters claim benefits offered by NFV-enabled systems including reductions in network capex and opex, service agility and faster deployment of new network elements.

ABI forecasts that overall NFV market revenue will reach $38 billion in 2022, although hardware expenditure, including servers, storage devices and switches, is expected to decline over time, while software and services segment spending is forecast to experience growth rates of 55% and 50%, respectively.

ABI notes that although the NFV market is evolving and technical expertise is starting to mature, the standardisation and multi-vendor involvement challenges will remain over the next two years. It adds that software and services vendors will have the opportunity to identify NFV use-cases for enterprise verticals and leverage these to deliver end-to-end integrated systems.

In terms of suppliers, ABI believes that the established vendors, including Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia, plus specialists such as Amdocs and Netcracker, will see early success, with systems integration becoming ever more important. It also notes that vendors are investing in open source software, which may increase business opportunities initially but could create difficulties in the future, particularly if telco interest in specific open source projects wanes.

ABI notes that currently, NFV is primarily seen as a means of reducing costs, but that new revenue opportunities will require a wider transformation which is likely to be driven by 5G after 2020.

Commenting on the report, Neha Pachade, senior analyst at ABI Research, said:

-           "In 2015 and 2016 the market experienced some early successes, but mostly reconsiderations and failures with NFV… early adopters conducted proof of concept testing and NFV-integrated system demonstrations to understand the impact of NFV in the technical, operational and cultural domains".

-           "Forecasts indicate that NFV will become a sizeable opportunity for vendors, although it is not yet clear whether it will cannibalise existing hardware-based product lines or create new market use cases".

https://www.abiresearch.com/press/abi-research-forecasts-nfv-market-will-reach-38-bi/

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