Intel Predicts PC Economics will Revolutionize Telecom

The telecom market has reached an inflection point where equipment designs based on proprietary silicon and software will soon be overtaken by systems built using standardized silicon, software and modules, said Howard Bubb, Vice President and General Manager of Intel's Communications Infrastructure Group, speaking at the UBS conference in New York.


Intel is pursing 2 basic strategies in this regard.


1. Bring communications into computing. Bubb observed that the deepest level of industry convergence is happening at the silicon level, where microprocessors, memories, baseband components and RF technologies are being combined on the same silicon die.


2. Bring modularity into the communications infrastructure. Intel is seeking to apply the same high-volume economics that have revolutionized the PC industry to the telecom business. Bubb predicts that by building standardized modules for use in a variety of telecom hardware devices, Moore's Law will finally apply to the communications industry


Bubb said all free and sizable markets move towards standards-based technology as they mature. They also modularize. He believes the telecom business has been slow to move in this direction because of the historic relationships between governments, incumbent carriers, and preferred equipment suppliers in countries around the world.


As evidence for this trend, Bubb said DoCoMo is now requiring that new platforms must be based on modular standards. Two other forces are also driving the trend. First, economic necessity requires that carrier move to cheaper and more open platforms. Second, everything is moving to IP.


Bubb predicts modularization will happen very rapidly on a global scale. New platforms will be built around carrier-grade Windows and Linux, rather than in-house OSes. Network equipment suppliers will become more like system integrators. Instead of developing their own ASICs and code, they will outsource the processors, boards, fans, power supplies, chassis and optics that go into their systems.


Bubb said packet processors are key elements to Intel's communications strategy. Designs on its product roadmap will be able handle 10 to 40 Gbps at full-duplex rates. What the microprocessor did for the PC industry, the packet processor will do for communications. Intel is also tuning its Pentium and Xeon processors for long-lifecycle telecom gear, like billing systems, which previously have used RISC processors. Since it entered the optical market 3 years ago, Intel has seen prices plummet from $7,000 for a 10 Gbps transceiver to $500 for a 10 Gbps XFP module. And more is on the way.


Just like in the PC market, Intel will create boards and software, but will not be the complete system provider, said Bubb. Intel also has high ambitions for wireless. The first phase was centered on the Centrino initiative. Next year it will have full 802.11 b/g solutions in laptops and it will move to really low-power designs for handhelds. The next frontier will be Wi-Max -- "the wireless local loop." Bubb predicts Wi-Max will provide a third leg of competition to DSL and cable modems.
http://www.intel.com